The race for the World Test Championship (WTC) final is heating up, with three of the ongoing Test series set to determine the top two teams that will clash at Lord’s next year. Here’s a simplified breakdown of how the top contenders are shaping up:
India
- Matches Left: 4 Tests vs Australia (away)
- Best Possible PCT: 69.29%
- India regained the top spot after a strong win in Perth. To qualify directly, they need a dominant result against Australia:
- Win the series 5-0, 4-0, 4-1, or 3-0.
- A 3-0 win would leave their PCT at 62.28, bettered only by South Africa.
If India lose the series, they’ll rely on other results. For example:
- If India loses 3-2, their PCT drops to 53.51. They’ll need:
- NZ vs ENG to end 1-1, leaving NZ at 52.38%.
- SA to finish with 52.77% by drawing their matches.
- Sri Lanka to stay below 53.51%, helped by a slow over-rate penalty.
Australia
- Matches Left: 4 Tests vs India (home), 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (away)
- Best Possible PCT: 71.05%
- Australia can secure a spot with five wins or four wins and a draw.
If they lose the Border-Gavaskar series 3-2, they can still qualify with a 2-0 sweep against Sri Lanka, ensuring a PCT of 60.53%. South Africa would be their only challenger in that case.
South Africa
- Matches Left: 1 Test vs Sri Lanka (home), 2 Tests vs Pakistan (home)
- Best Possible PCT: 69.44%
- South Africa are favorites with three home games remaining.
- Scenarios:
- Two wins and a draw (PCT 63.89%) – Only India or Australia can surpass them.
- Two wins and a loss (PCT 61.11%) – They’ll need Sri Lanka to drop points or India/Australia to stumble.
Sri Lanka
- Matches Left: 1 Test vs South Africa (away), 2 Tests vs Australia (home)
- Best Possible PCT: 61.53%
- Sri Lanka must win all three games to qualify outright. With two wins and a draw (PCT 56.41%), they’ll need other results to fall in their favor.
New Zealand
- Matches Left: 2 Tests vs England (home)
- Best Possible PCT: 57.14%
- New Zealand’s loss to England dented their campaign. Even two wins may not be enough—they’ll depend on other results:
- South Africa losing two of their last three games.
- Either India or Australia dominating their series to push NZ into the top two.
Note:
All these calculations assume no penalties for slow over-rates, which could alter standings significantly.
